Counterfactuals, Causal Attributions, and the Hindsight Bias: A Conceptual Integration

نویسندگان

  • Dave Hamilton
  • Dale Miller
  • Mike Ross
  • Richard Sorrentino
  • Yaacov Trope
  • Eileen da Pena
  • N J. R
چکیده

This research was supported by a postdoctoral fellowship awarded to Neal Roese and a research grant awarded to James Olson, both from the Social Sciences and HumanitiesResearch Council of Canada. We thank Dave Hamilton, Dale Miller, Mike Ross, Richard Sorrentino, Yaacov Trope, and two anonymous reviewers for providing valuable comments on various versions of the manuscript.We are also grateful to Eileen da Pena for her assistance in running the first experiment. Correspondence and reprint requests should be addressed to Neal Roese, Department of Psychology, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208-2710. e-mail: roese=nwu.edu. Counterfactual research news is posted at the web site, http://www.psych.nwu. edu/people/roese.      32, 197—227 (1996)  . 0010

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Attributing Responsibility: Actual and Counterfactual Worlds

How do people attribute responsibility to individuals in a group? Several models in psychology predict that there is a close relationship between counterfactuals and responsibility: how responsible an individual’s contribution is seen depends on whether it made a difference to the outcome. We first review these models and then point out a major limitation: people sometimes hold individuals resp...

متن کامل

Perspectives on Psychological Science

Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they “knew it all along,” that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known. Hindsight bias embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events’ objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one’s own prediction abilities. Hindsight bias stems from...

متن کامل

Fluency misattribution and visual hindsight bias.

We tested a fluency-misattribution theory of visual hindsight bias, and examined how perceptual and conceptual fluency contribute to the bias. In Experiment 1a observers identified celebrity faces that began blurred and then clarified (Forward baseline), or indicated when faces that began clear and then blurred were no longer recognisable (Backward baseline). In surprise memory tests that follo...

متن کامل

Investment Decision-Making and Hindsight Bias

We investigated the relationships between investment decision making and hindsight bias. Economic studies consider the agent’s foresight perspective only, without taking into account the hindsight bias possible effects in the decision-making process. We studied the subject’s overall perceived error by focusing on the causal relations between the estimate and memory errors and by analysing his c...

متن کامل

Can Causal Sense-Making Benefit Foresight, Rather than Biasing Hindsight?

Upon reading headlines like “Traffic Fatalities Increased/Decreased Last Year,” people often overestimate how well they would have anticipated changes. This hindsight bias has been linked to causal sensemaking that minimizes one’s feeling of surprise after learning an outcome. In this paper, we consider whether the sensemaking process, which contributes to bias in hindsight, could be recruited ...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 1996